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How to Handicap a Horse Race Using Priority and Weight to Develop a Hierarchy

Setting up a horse racing handicap requires comparing different factors and coming up with a value for each horse. In other words, the value is equal to what you think the horse’s chance of winning is. A simple example would be to add up each horse’s last three speed numbers and assign each horse a possible winning odds based on its total speed.

It might look like this…

1. Flying ace speed=220 odds=2-1

2. Rubber Leg Speed ​​= 210 Odds = 3-1

3. Goose Speed ​​= 200 Odds = 4-1

ETC…

Of course, making betting decisions based on just one factor is not very complicated, nor likely to be profitable. It takes more than that to make a good judgment call about each runner’s chances.

This is where the weighting factor becomes important. While speed is important, is it really the most important factor in the game? You have to decide which impediment factor is most important, so give it the greatest weight. Practicing and taking notes from race to race and race to race will eventually help you develop a weighted list of horse racing factors. A range of factors was then formulated and revealed a better understanding of each runner’s opportunity.

You can determine that the nearest speed is 60% of the total score, the class is 30%, and the connection is 10%. Then, after you’ve calculated each factor and each horse, a true score can be displayed and indicate which runner is most likely to win.

Experience will then help you develop a morning route for each horse. It all comes down to probability and value. If you want a 20% return on investment (betting), you must be able to find a bet that is at least 20% better than the runner’s chance of winning based on points. For example, if I know a horse has a 25% chance of winning and the odds are 5-1, then I know that for every 4 such horses I bet on, a horse will win and pay $12.00 (based on $2 bet). Since I have wagered 4 times and spent the base amount of $8 and got back $12, I made a profit of $4, which is 50% of my investment, a very good return indeed.

Naturally, while all of this sounds great and works well on paper, in the real world it is extremely difficult to make a profit from horse racing betting. The reason is that a lot of people who understand the concept are doing the same thing, and also because racing is a risky business. Jockeys lose their whips during the course, horses fall, horses are disqualified for being jolted, and sometimes, they just don’t run well.

So if you’re lucky and good enough to make 10% profits long term, you’re doing pretty well as a handicap.

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