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Does it Make Sense to Sit Postup Fantasy Basketball Players Against Top Ranked Defenses?

This article will explore how important matchups are in fantasy basketball. We all know that fantasy football is a game that relies heavily on defensive plays, so we wanted to see if defensive plays were also a factor in fantasy basketball. In particular, we wanted to focus our analysis on the impact of superior interior defense on the low-speed offense. To do this, we looked at the average post punter performance against the league’s top interior defenses.

A quick survey of the league shows that only Boston, Los Angeles, Denver and San Antonio have the type of interior defense one would want to avoid. Boston has the combination of Garnett, Sheed and Kendrick Perkins that is perhaps the best the league has to offer. All three are just under 7 feet tall, and Garnett is a former Defensive Player of the Year. The Lakers are also an above average size team. Between Gasol, Byum, Odem and Artest the Lakers have one of the best interior defenses in the Western Conference.

Denver is the only team in the Western Conference that could contend for this title with Nene, Birdman and Kenyon Martin combining like Megatron to keep the Nuggets blocking shots in the upper decks. Finally, any discussion surrounding interior defense cannot neglect the San Antonio Spurs who always bring it defensively. Duncan and McDysess are two old-school OG defenders who along with their teammates’ excellent defense can really shut down matchups after the game.

Let’s dig straight into some numbers. Table 1 shows the average point and rebound differential for NBA teams after players against the four top defensive teams used in our data set. Overall, post players can expect a drop in scoring (-3.07 ppg) and rebounding (-0.71 rpg) when coming up against the league’s top defenses. While these results aren’t huge departures from a given season average after players, the message is that you shouldn’t expect the monster game to boost your season average when facing an elite defense.

A few more interesting things emerge from this analysis. First, the impact of superior post defense has a more profound effect on scoring than rebounding. Additionally, the analysis shows that while we have qualitatively identified 4 superior defensive teams, it appears that Boston and Denver appear to be a tier above the defenses of San Antonio and Los Angeles. In fact, if you remove SA and LA then the average and rebound differentials become -6 ppg and close to -1 rpg.

So the question remains, should you bench players based on defensive math ups. We will stick to the same recommendation as we did for football. Never freeze your star players, but use defensive matchups as a go/no-go decision metric to play mid-range or inconsistent players.

Well, defensive matchups play a role in fantasy basketball, at least from the players’ perspective. While the differences aren’t drastic, they support the fact that mid-range players are less likely to overperform against a superior defense. Fortunately for you, the NBA has largely become a guard game, and there are only a handful of defenses with sufficient personnel to create matchup problems is the low post.

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